Editor’s note: Demola Olarewaju, a political analyst affiliated with the PDP, makes a prediction of the outcome of the Kogi governorship election based on his own findings.
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| Wada and Audu |
The stage is all set for the elections tomorrow between the incumbent Governor Idris Wada of the PDP and Prince Abubakar Audu of the APC in the first of the deregularised gubernatorial elections across the country after the Aprill 11 gubernatorial elections.
During my recent visit to Kogi, I went round to sample opinions randomly and feel the political temperature of the state. Elections are always determined by several variables and every election prediction has a huge margin of errors. Nevertheless, political pundits and analysts must be able to look at the omens and predict the outcome.
Based on my observations and without bias, here are the factors that will affect the elections, how I feel the elections will turn out and why.
Factors/variables
Incumbency will be a major factor here and Wada has the advantage. For the incumbent governor, the ongoing projects give room for leverage in communities across the state – projects like a diagnostics center, housing projects have no guarantee of continuity if the incumbent governor is voted out. Audu also enjoys a form of incumbency: as the former governor, he is well remembered but it works to his disadvantage. Another former governor, Ibrahim Idris, also remains hugely popular in his area and is fully behind Wada.
Character is likely to be the big issue in this election. Audu is considered arrogant while Wada has a reputation for simplicity. Audu is from a royal family and when he was governor, he acted like royalty – almost as if expecting to be worshipped. Recipients of government favours were made to prostrate in front of him and pay homage and even go on the state radio to testify to what “His Excellency” had done for them.
It is also a major reason why the traditional rulers are supporting Wada and doing so quite openly. Audu used to make them line up along the road if he was returning by road from a trip. They would be there for hours sometimes, just to pay obeisance to the governor. The contest is seen as one between a humble governor and an emperor with the history of slapping civil servants and even the head of service.
In finance, the PDP shot itself in the foot by showing that it had learnt very little from the electoral loss(es) it suffered. Goveror Wada was made to go through the proverbial eye of the needle to get a second-term ticket. At a time, his opponent Jibrin “Echocho” Isah fought quite hard and the PDP hierarchy used him as a prop to make Wada spend so much trying to get the ticket. Now, he has to conserve his financial resources and deploy them where they are most likely to make an impact. Would the billions of naira expected from the bailout funds have been used to improve this situation? I cannot say.
Audu, on the other hand, has a well-financed campaign machinery. He also has a reputation of being the man to go to if you are a political player willing to trade loyalties. His deputy, Hon. James Faleke, allegedly mobilised funds from Lagos and, with the backing of Senator Bola Tinubu, induced several defections in the Okun (the Yoruba-speaking) area. The defection of Hon. Duro Meseko, who had once been an aide to Wada, as well as that of Fehinti Dada, the campaign manager of Sen. Smart Adeyemi’s reelection efforts, may have an effect of the PDP’s chances in this area.
This brings us to the variableness of the elections. There is little guarantee that people will play along party lines to the hilt. Those who have defected may have done so out of financial inducement while some who have not defected may have been financially induced to play the spoiler in their party. A top APC senator is said to be working assiduously for Wada’s second term because he, like some others, do not trust Audu enough to keep the promise of power rotation.
On defections: their impact is yet to be seen because, while finance plays a major issue in engineering defections, it could also be taken advantage of. Situations where people have defected and maintained their loyalty to the former alliances are not unknown .
Another factor is “the wind of change”. Many are desirous of aligning Kogi with the center where the APC now holds sway. In the general election, the APC cleared the state of all three senatorial positions and swept the presidential polls. Had the elections held at that time, Wada would have been out of power now, but he has a lifeline: the flaws of the present government have been presented as a campaign issue by the PDP. But this may not be enough to halt the tide of change.
Federal might is the almighty factor and undetermined variable. The PDP had in the past deployed federal power to its own advantage, but under Jonathan, this was no longer the norm as the INEC was allowed to be independent. President Buhari secretly meeting with the chairman of the INEC doesn’t help the optics here. The PDP is also alleging that the APC is prepared to manipulate the elections in favour of its candidate Audu.
Statistics
In the presidential polls of 2015, the APC won 264,851 votes while the PDP could only muster 149,987 from across the 21 local government of the state, and a total of 1,350,883 registered voters but only 476,839 accredited to vote on election day. I expect this number of accredited voters to grow because the stakes here are quite high and it is a sort of emotional election in the state based on the points illustrated under the character factor. Then again, intimidation may be a deterrent to potential voters who may not come out to vote for fear of violence.
The senatorial elections held on the same day saw the same trend with two-term Senator Smart Adeyemi of the PDP roundly defeated by the APC’s Dino Melaiye in Kogi West, Mohammed Ohiare of the APC defeating the then-incumbent Senator Usman Abatemi who had defected from the PDP to the PPA as a result of his defeat in the PDP primary election by Saliu Ogembe in the Central Senatorial district, while in the East Senatorial district, Senator Attai Aidoko of the PDP lost to Alhaji Abubakar of the APC.
In the House of Reps elections, held on the same day with the presidential and senatorial elections, the APC cleared five seats to the PDP’s three with one constituency undetermined at the time. The House of Assembly polls two wees later, however, saw a reversal of fortunes as the PDP managed to win 14 of the 25 seats leaving the APC with 11.
In the last gubernatorial race, Capt. Idris Wada of the PDP polled 300,372 votes to Prince Abubakar Audu of ACN’s 159, 913. The PDP won overwhelmingly in 18 out of the 21 local governments in the state while the ACN won in the remaining three local councils.
How they stand in LGAs
Adavi, Okehi, Idah, Ibaji and Dekina LGAs usually churn out large numbers that can outweigh the votes from other LGAs. Kabba/Bunu, Bassa, Igalamela/Odolu, Yagba East and Yagba West all deliver average numbers, but taken wholly could prove to be crucial. Eyes therefore would be on the first five and the next five for pointers to the eventual winner.
Kogi can be divided into three zones: Ebira, Okun and Igala, where both Audu and Wada hail from.
Kogi Central (Ebira Land)
Ajaokuta: the APC will get 60% of the votes while the PDP with the influence of Moses Ado Okino will get 40% of the votes in the LGA. The total number of votes from here is usually less than 8,000.
Adavi: former deputy governor under the PDP-led government, Philip Salawu, who is now the candidate of the LP in this election, may be the spoiler for the PDP in this area. Nevertheless, with the influence of the former House of Reps member, Hon Badamasiu, the PDP will win the LG: the PDP 60%, the APC 25%, the Labour Party 15%.
Okehi: the PDP will win the LG because all the political heavyweights in the area are still in the PDP, and the fact that Prince Audu moved a health college from there to his home town, the people of Okehi by my field reports are still unhappy over that decision. The PDP to win 60% of the votes.
Ogori Magongo: the voting strength here is the weakest in the state with about 4,000 votes. This is a PDP stronghold and the PDP will win here by 70% as it has always done.
Okene will play a significant role in the coming election because of the voting population here. Yahaya Bello, who came second in the APC primaries, is loved by Ebira people and his sympathy is with the PDP now. All the heavyweight politicians from the area like Yahaya Karaku, Ahmed Ogembe, Abdulazeez King, Tijani Tamusa are working for the PDP. Audu has a bad image among the Ebiras and especially the Okene people. The PDP will win this place with wide margins.
Kogi West (Okun)
Kogi Local Govt (Koton Karfi): the APC will win here easily.
Lokoja: high concentration of civil servants in the state capital and voting strength of outside wards like Oworo Area, Kuppa where the PDP has always won since 1999. Kogi civil servants and pensioners will not forget Audu in a hurry as he once referred to them as deadwoods. There is also fear of Audu sacking them if he wins. The influence of people like Abdulrazak Kutepa, Senator Tunde Ogbeha and James Katugwa cannot be discounted, especially Ogbeha who as the campaign DG has a point to prove. Wada to win 60% of the votes here.
Idris Wada (left), Abubakar Audu
The stage is all set for the elections tomorrow between the incumbent Governor Idris Wada of the PDP and Prince Abubakar Audu of the APC in the first of the deregularised gubernatorial elections across the country after the Aprill 11 gubernatorial elections.
During my recent visit to Kogi, I went round to sample opinions randomly and feel the political temperature of the state. Elections are always determined by several variables and every election prediction has a huge margin of errors. Nevertheless, political pundits and analysts must be able to look at the omens and predict the outcome.
Based on my observations and without bias, here are the factors that will affect the elections, how I feel the elections will turn out and why.
Factors/variables
Incumbency will be a major factor here and Wada has the advantage. For the incumbent governor, the ongoing projects give room for leverage in communities across the state – projects like a diagnostics center, housing projects have no guarantee of continuity if the incumbent governor is voted out. Audu also enjoys a form of incumbency: as the former governor, he is well remembered but it works to his disadvantage. Another former governor, Ibrahim Idris, also remains hugely popular in his area and is fully behind Wada.
Character is likely to be the big issue in this election. Audu is considered arrogant while Wada has a reputation for simplicity. Audu is from a royal family and when he was governor, he acted like royalty – almost as if expecting to be worshipped. Recipients of government favours were made to prostrate in front of him and pay homage and even go on the state radio to testify to what “His Excellency” had done for them.
It is also a major reason why the traditional rulers are supporting Wada and doing so quite openly. Audu used to make them line up along the road if he was returning by road from a trip. They would be there for hours sometimes, just to pay obeisance to the governor. The contest is seen as one between a humble governor and an emperor with the history of slapping civil servants and even the head of service.
In finance, the PDP shot itself in the foot by showing that it had learnt very little from the electoral loss(es) it suffered. Goveror Wada was made to go through the proverbial eye of the needle to get a second-term ticket. At a time, his opponent Jibrin “Echocho” Isah fought quite hard and the PDP hierarchy used him as a prop to make Wada spend so much trying to get the ticket. Now, he has to conserve his financial resources and deploy them where they are most likely to make an impact. Would the billions of naira expected from the bailout funds have been used to improve this situation? I cannot say.
Audu, on the other hand, has a well-financed campaign machinery. He also has a reputation of being the man to go to if you are a political player willing to trade loyalties. His deputy, Hon. James Faleke, allegedly mobilised funds from Lagos and, with the backing of Senator Bola Tinubu, induced several defections in the Okun (the Yoruba-speaking) area. The defection of Hon. Duro Meseko, who had once been an aide to Wada, as well as that of Fehinti Dada, the campaign manager of Sen. Smart Adeyemi’s reelection efforts, may have an effect of the PDP’s chances in this area.
This brings us to the variableness of the elections. There is little guarantee that people will play along party lines to the hilt. Those who have defected may have done so out of financial inducement while some who have not defected may have been financially induced to play the spoiler in their party. A top APC senator is said to be working assiduously for Wada’s second term because he, like some others, do not trust Audu enough
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